Prophecy?
A week ago, Donald Trump said “We've got to keep our country safe. You look at what's happening in Germany, you look at what's happening last night in Sweden. Who would believe this? Sweden! They took in large numbers, they’re having problems like they never thought possible.”
From that statement, his implied meaning is that an incident occurred in Sweden on the 17th of February at night. It turned that Trump misspoke. What he meant was that he watched a segment on Fox news on Friday night and Fox news had brought the topic of Sweden immigration up.
Incidentally, Sweden did have a riot suspected to be caused by immigrants the following Monday. This fact cheered the right wing people in America to no ends. The right-wing leader (aka Donald Trump) had correctly foretold that immigrants would cause trouble in Sweden.
Donald trump has made certain correct predictions before but then he has not been honest about the misses. (Anyone still wants to argue that Democrats cheated by using a Kenyan born Muslim to seize control of the White House? Trump was peddling this falsehood until 2016. He then blamed Hillary Clinton for creating the lie.)
Step 1: Plan the dish
Anyone can make predictions about the next violent crime or terror attack. As long as you don't make predictions (Eg. Men will start to give birth.) that are too outlandish, there is a chance that you will be correct. I predict that there will be another mass shooting in America as long as the firearms laws and ownership do not change. Of course, I am cheating by not giving any specific details or even time frame.
Step 2: Throw in the spice
In order to get listeners to my prediction, I have to throw in some juicy tidbits that support their confirmation bias. We know that most mass shooters to date are white American. This is perfectly logical as white Amercian do make up the majority race in America. But I need more listeners and most of them will be white American. So I sell the theory about an unknown threat from an outsider. (Yes, I know that there are Muslims who are Americans but white Americans are often ill-informed about other religions. That is why Sikhs were mistaken as Muslims..) Trump threw Mexicans and Muslims under the bus by stereotyping them as people capable of violence.
Step 3: Sell the sizzle
People may not believe me but they will believe their preferred subject matter expert. So I make deals with the subject matter experts. I give them credibility and they will in turn act as judas goats. If I can make family patriarchs coerce their spouses and other family members, that is even better. At this point, I need to play to their confirmation bias. I will also play to their prejudices and fears so that they will keep supporting me.
Step 4: Control the fire
Even Donald Trump was not dumb enough to claim absolutes. He did not say that all Muslims and Mexicans are bad. This would imply that several world leaders and nationality are bad which is a non-starter even if there are many people that believe it. So I must imply it by hints, winks and other vague statements.
I also need to appear reasonable. That is why Trump's Muslim ban was supposed to be "temporary". If you believe that the Muslim ban was the final step, you will be in for a surprise. Trump is just checking the temperature. Remember that I need the message to go out to as many people as possible and I cannot achieve it if my listeners are busy fighting.
Step 5: Claim success regardless of evidence
Voila! Dinner is ready. Notice that I have not stated the end result? That is because I have no idea what the end result will be. Trump had no idea what crime the immigrants in Sweden will commit but he knew that things are likely to occur in Europe. If the riot in Sweden did not occur, the next incident in Europe will be claimed as proof of his prophecy. I do not have to be right. I only have to be lucky and my listeners will assume the rest.
And with my five easy step, you can be the next terror expert.
"The world is so unpredictable. Things happen suddenly, unexpectedly. We want to feel we are in control of our own existence. In some ways we are, in some ways we're not. We are ruled by the forces of chance and coincidence." Paul Auster
From that statement, his implied meaning is that an incident occurred in Sweden on the 17th of February at night. It turned that Trump misspoke. What he meant was that he watched a segment on Fox news on Friday night and Fox news had brought the topic of Sweden immigration up.
Incidentally, Sweden did have a riot suspected to be caused by immigrants the following Monday. This fact cheered the right wing people in America to no ends. The right-wing leader (aka Donald Trump) had correctly foretold that immigrants would cause trouble in Sweden.
Donald trump has made certain correct predictions before but then he has not been honest about the misses. (Anyone still wants to argue that Democrats cheated by using a Kenyan born Muslim to seize control of the White House? Trump was peddling this falsehood until 2016. He then blamed Hillary Clinton for creating the lie.)
Step 1: Plan the dish
Anyone can make predictions about the next violent crime or terror attack. As long as you don't make predictions (Eg. Men will start to give birth.) that are too outlandish, there is a chance that you will be correct. I predict that there will be another mass shooting in America as long as the firearms laws and ownership do not change. Of course, I am cheating by not giving any specific details or even time frame.
Step 2: Throw in the spice
In order to get listeners to my prediction, I have to throw in some juicy tidbits that support their confirmation bias. We know that most mass shooters to date are white American. This is perfectly logical as white Amercian do make up the majority race in America. But I need more listeners and most of them will be white American. So I sell the theory about an unknown threat from an outsider. (Yes, I know that there are Muslims who are Americans but white Americans are often ill-informed about other religions. That is why Sikhs were mistaken as Muslims..) Trump threw Mexicans and Muslims under the bus by stereotyping them as people capable of violence.
Step 3: Sell the sizzle
People may not believe me but they will believe their preferred subject matter expert. So I make deals with the subject matter experts. I give them credibility and they will in turn act as judas goats. If I can make family patriarchs coerce their spouses and other family members, that is even better. At this point, I need to play to their confirmation bias. I will also play to their prejudices and fears so that they will keep supporting me.
Step 4: Control the fire
Even Donald Trump was not dumb enough to claim absolutes. He did not say that all Muslims and Mexicans are bad. This would imply that several world leaders and nationality are bad which is a non-starter even if there are many people that believe it. So I must imply it by hints, winks and other vague statements.
I also need to appear reasonable. That is why Trump's Muslim ban was supposed to be "temporary". If you believe that the Muslim ban was the final step, you will be in for a surprise. Trump is just checking the temperature. Remember that I need the message to go out to as many people as possible and I cannot achieve it if my listeners are busy fighting.
Step 5: Claim success regardless of evidence
Voila! Dinner is ready. Notice that I have not stated the end result? That is because I have no idea what the end result will be. Trump had no idea what crime the immigrants in Sweden will commit but he knew that things are likely to occur in Europe. If the riot in Sweden did not occur, the next incident in Europe will be claimed as proof of his prophecy. I do not have to be right. I only have to be lucky and my listeners will assume the rest.
And with my five easy step, you can be the next terror expert.
"The world is so unpredictable. Things happen suddenly, unexpectedly. We want to feel we are in control of our own existence. In some ways we are, in some ways we're not. We are ruled by the forces of chance and coincidence." Paul Auster
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